October remittances of $3.89 billion already top the monthly pace the State Bank needs for $45 billion
Overseas Pakistanis sent $14.8 billion in the first four months of the fiscal year. Banks now say they will spend Rs100 billion of their own money to attract remittances and lower the cost of sending them.
Pakistan received $3.89 billion from workers abroad in October, more than the monthly average the State Bank of Pakistan now needs from here to reach its raised forecast for the fiscal year. The bank's release of 10 November puts inflows for July to October at $14.8 billion, 14.0 percent above the $13.0 billion of the same four months a year earlier. October itself was 13.8 percent higher than October 2025 and 8.5 percent above September.
What the forecast demands
The State Bank governor has raised the full year projection to $45 billion from $44 billion, Business Recorder reported. With $14.77 billion received so far, the remaining eight months must bring in $30.23 billion, or $3.78 billion a month. The first four months averaged $3.69 billion, so the target asks for a slightly faster pace than the year has managed to date, and October's $3.89 billion was already above it.
The same sum shows how cautious the forecast is. A year of $45 billion would be about 8 percent above the $41.58 billion received in 2025 to 2026, while the first four months of this year are growing at 14 percent. The projection leaves room for growth to slow by almost half and still be met.
Where the money comes from
The four corridors named in the release add up to $2.72 billion, or 69.9 percent of October's total. Saudi Arabia sent $981.6 million (25.2 percent), the United Arab Emirates $815.9 million (21.0 percent), the United Kingdom $592.2 million (15.2 percent) and the United States $328.9 million (8.5 percent). Adding the $370 million that the State Bank's breakdown credits to other Gulf states, the Gulf supplied about $2.17 billion, or 55.7 percent.
The fastest growth came from the United Kingdom. Its corridor rose 19 percent, from $499 million to $592 million, a gain of $93 million. Saudi Arabia grew 17 percent, the UAE 16 percent and the United States 9 percent, a gain of $28 million from $301 million. The Gulf still supplies the volume, and more than half of every month's inflow depends on its labour market.
Who pays for the transfer
Zafar Masud, chairman of the Pakistan Banks Association, said commercial banks are prepared to spend Rs100 billion from their own resources in 2026 to 27 to attract remittances and lower the cost of sending them. He said banks took this on after the government stopped subsidising remittance transactions, and that overseas Pakistanis currently pay between 18 and 20 riyals to send every $200.
Spread over the State Bank's $45 billion forecast, Rs100 billion works out to about Rs2.22 for every dollar remitted. That is an average: the banks have not said how much of the Rs100 billion is new spending and how much is the cost of incentives already running.
Part of the effort is the Pasban Remittance Reward Scheme, for which the banks have allocated Rs16 billion in prizes, equal to 16 percent of the Rs100 billion figure if the prizes are counted inside it. Munir Kamal, the association's chief executive, said the first balloting is scheduled for January.
What the numbers suggest
The forecast looks cautious: October alone beat the required pace, and the year needs 8 percent growth against the 14 percent now running. The risk to it is not demand from workers abroad but where the money travels. A sender compares the fee, the exchange rate and the speed of a bank transfer with those of an informal dealer, and with the subsidy gone the banks' Rs100 billion is best read as the cost of keeping the formal channel competitive, not as a bonus on top of it.
A prize draw also changes the odds, not the price. For a family sending $200 a month, a fee of 18 to 20 riyals is a certain cost, while a quarterly draw is a small chance of a gain. If the fee does not fall, the scheme will matter less than the charge paid abroad, so the figure to watch is the cost per $200, not the size of the prize pool.
The gains and losses are uneven. Banks with large remittance books gain deposits that are cheap to hold, but they now carry the incentive on every dollar. The State Bank's reserves and importers gain from a steady supply of dollars. The 55.7 percent Gulf share means that a slowdown in Gulf hiring would show up in these figures first.
What remains unknown is the formal share of each corridor and the split of the Rs100 billion. The first Pasban balloting in January and the State Bank's November figures, due in December, will show whether October was a peak or a new base.
