The minister says internet speed is up 60 percent. The spectrum sum checks out, the speed claim has no baseline

Pakistan's IT minister says internet speed has risen 60 percent in two and a half years, but has not said from what level, on which measure or by whose tests. Speaking at the Margalla Dialogue in Islamabad on 11 November, Shaza Fatima Khawaja listed fibre, capacity and spectrum gains alongside it. One of those figures, the spectrum total, can be rebuilt from a public record. The speed claim cannot.

She said fibre connections grew from 3 million to more than 6 million, internet data use rose by 2 terabits per second to a live total of about 7 terabits, and two new submarine cables were added to the country's international links. She put usable spectrum at more than 750 megahertz, up from 274 after the largest auction in the country's history, which offered 480 megahertz. She also said 5G has about 1.8 million users.

The spectrum sum works

This is the one claim that traces to a dated record. The Pakistan Telecommunication Authority closed its 5G auction on 10 March, selling 480 megahertz for $507 million across three bidding rounds. Jazz took 190 megahertz, Ufone 180 and Zong 110. Add the 480 sold to the 274 she cited as the earlier total and the result is 754, which matches "more than 750". Holdings are 2.75 times what they were.

In March the minister said that even the base auction would double spectrum availability, and the larger sale went past that. Each operator had to buy at least 100 megahertz. Spectrum is the raw material, not the speed. What a user sees depends on how many towers carry the new bands and how many handsets can use them. The government's stated aim in March was 5G in five major cities within five to six months, a window that has since closed. The 1.8 million 5G user figure is a first measure of reach, but it has no denominator: it does not say what share of mobile users that is, or how many of them are on 5G cells and not just holding 5G handsets.

The speed claim has no baseline

A 60 percent gain needs a starting point and a measure. The minister gave neither: not whether she meant median or average, mobile or fixed, nor whose tests. The one independent figure in the public record is Ookla data compiled by World Population Review, which put Pakistan's median mobile download speed at 19.59 megabits per second in October 2024. That is a single point inside the period she described, not a series, so it can neither confirm nor refute the claim. Only a published series can. Until the ministry or the regulator shows one, the claim is unproven, not wrong.

Fibre and capacity

Fibre connections going from 3 million to more than 6 million means at least 3 million were added. The figure does not say whether these are homes passed, homes connected or business lines, and the distinction matters because a passed home earns nothing until a customer signs up.

The capacity numbers need the same care. A live total of about 7 terabits, after an increase of 2, implies the country carried about 5 terabits before. That is a 40 percent rise, but the period over which the 2 terabits were added was not stated, so it cannot be laid beside the 60 percent speed claim. Capacity and the speed people see at home also differ. Home speed is set mostly by the last mile, the access network between an exchange and a house, while submarine cables matter more to the cost and reliability of international traffic.

Data policy and AI

The minister said a Data Governance Policy is being prepared and will be unveiled within a few weeks. It aims to allow secure, accountable sharing of data between institutions, and to give the public and young people access to properly sanitised data. At the same session the Pakistan Digital Authority's executive director, Rehan Tahir, said its main job is linking federal and provincial government databases, and that service quality can improve only when quality data is available.

She repeated the government's $1 billion AI investment plan, covering infrastructure, skills, innovation and connectivity, and said AI would change jobs rather than remove them. She also said people who use AI can be up to 100 times more productive than others with similar skills. No source was given for that figure, so it stands as the minister's own estimate.

Which figures hold

Of the figures in the speech, the spectrum total is the strongest because it can be rebuilt from two public numbers. The 5G user count is a start but needs a denominator. Fibre and speed are the weakest, because each needs a baseline and a definition. The cheapest way to settle the argument is for the PTA to publish quarterly median speeds by operator and technology, with the method, so that claims of this kind can be read against a series. The Data Governance Policy will also have to settle who owns a record once two departments hold copies, and what consent a citizen must give.

The next thing to watch is that policy. The minister said on 11 November that it would be unveiled within a few weeks.